Wesley Chapel, Florida, September 29, 2008 -- November soybean futures closed lower at the Chicago Board of Trade Friday, near the session low and making a bearish weekly low close.
Prices are in a three-month downtrend on the VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com) daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $12.12 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $11.99 1/2.
From an important intermarket perspective provided by VantagePoint, technical odds favor more downside price pressure in November soybeans in the coming few sessions. The Predicted Neural Index on the VantagePoint daily bar chart for November soybean futures is presently reading 0.00, suggesting more downside price pressure in the near term.
VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool from which a trader can glean clues on potential near-term price trend changes or continuation of present trends. These near-term clues provided by VantagePoint can and do give a trader a key edge.
When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 1.00, indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 0.00, indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days.
The Predicted Neural Index, a proprietary VantagePoint indicator, is either correct or incorrect so its performance can be measured in terms of percent correct to produce the accuracy statistics cited for VantagePoint, which has a predictive accuracy rate of around 80% across a wide range of markets and time spans in ongoing research.
The VantagePoint daily bar chart for November soybeans also shows that, while the predicted 4-day exponential moving average (EMA) of typical prices two days ahead is presently above the actual 10-day simple moving average of the close, the predicted 4-day EMA has "rolled over" and is trending lower and likely to produce a bearish medium-term moving average crossover indication soon. The last time the predicted medium-term crossover lines were in a similar posture was in late August, at which time November soybean futures did begin a fresh leg down in prices.
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