Wesley Chapel, Florida, September 15, 2008 -- The December U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) at the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) remains in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and just last week hit a fresh contract high. USDX bulls are still strong and are looking for more on the upside in the coming weeks.
However, the solid run higher in December USDX futures prices has created a near-term overbought condition. From important early warnings provided by VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com), technical odds favor some more downside corrective price pressure in USDX futures in the coming few sessions.
VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool that gives traders clues about potential near-term price trend changes or continuation of present trends. These near-term clues provided by VantagePoint can and do give a trader a key edge.
From an important intermarket perspective, VantagePoint is presently providing two bearish near-term technical indications for December USDX futures. The first is that VantagePoint's Predicted Neural Index, a proprietary indicator, is presently reading 0.00, suggesting more downside price pressure in the near term.

When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 1.00, indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 0.00, indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days.
The Predicted Neural Index is either correct or incorrect so its performance can be measured in terms of percent correct to produce the accuracy statistics cited for VantagePoint, which has a predictive accuracy rate of around 80% across a wide range of markets and time spans in ongoing research.
The second indication on the VantagePoint (www.TraderTech.com)daily bar chart for December USDX futures is that the Predicted Moving Average Convergence Divergence (PMACD) indicator has just produced a bearish alert as the PMACD line has crossed below the "trigger" line of the indicator.
PMACD is another way of using moving averages to predict market changes. PMACD charts the difference between two predicted exponential moving averages and uses another exponential moving average of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) to predict MACD one day ahead, acting as a trigger for trading signals. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator calculated by subtracting a 20-day exponential moving average from a 10-day exponential moving average.
When the PMACD line crosses below the trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend. When the PMACD line crosses above the trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend. Another crossover indicator occurs when the PMACD crosses above or below the zero line.
Predicted MACD can also be used as an overbought/oversold detector when it pulls away from the trigger, suggesting the price of the market may be due for a correction that will bring the averages back together. PMACD can also be used to spot underlying strength or weakness when its movement diverges from the movement of prices.
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