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VantagePoint Analysis: U.S. Dollar Index Still in Uptrend, But Due for More Near-Term Corrective Downside Pressure

 

Wesley Chapel, Florida, September 15, 2008 -- The December U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) at the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) remains in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart and just last week hit a fresh contract high. USDX bulls are still strong and are looking for more on the upside in the coming weeks.

However, the solid run higher in December USDX futures prices has created a near-term overbought condition. From important early warnings provided by VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com), technical odds favor some more downside corrective price pressure in USDX futures in the coming few sessions.

VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool that gives traders clues about potential near-term price trend changes or continuation of present trends. These near-term clues provided by VantagePoint can and do give a trader a key edge.

From an important intermarket perspective, VantagePoint is presently providing two bearish near-term technical indications for December USDX futures. The first is that VantagePoint's Predicted Neural Index, a proprietary indicator, is presently reading 0.00, suggesting more downside price pressure in the near term.

When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 1.00, indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 0.00, indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days.

The Predicted Neural Index is either correct or incorrect so its performance can be measured in terms of percent correct to produce the accuracy statistics cited for VantagePoint, which has a predictive accuracy rate of around 80% across a wide range of markets and time spans in ongoing research.

The second indication on the VantagePoint (www.TraderTech.com)daily bar chart for December USDX futures is that the Predicted Moving Average Convergence Divergence (PMACD) indicator has just produced a bearish alert as the PMACD line has crossed below the "trigger" line of the indicator.

PMACD is another way of using moving averages to predict market changes. PMACD charts the difference between two predicted exponential moving averages and uses another exponential moving average of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) to predict MACD one day ahead, acting as a trigger for trading signals. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator calculated by subtracting a 20-day exponential moving average from a 10-day exponential moving average.

When the PMACD line crosses below the trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend. When the PMACD line crosses above the trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend. Another crossover indicator occurs when the PMACD crosses above or below the zero line.

Predicted MACD can also be used as an overbought/oversold detector when it pulls away from the trigger, suggesting the price of the market may be due for a correction that will bring the averages back together. PMACD can also be used to spot underlying strength or weakness when its movement diverges from the movement of prices.

About TradingEducation.com, LLC
Established in September 2005, TradingEducation.com, LLC (www.TradingEducation.com) has developed into a comprehensive internet resource offering traders free educational materials, quotes, and market relevant news for stocks, exchange-traded funds, commodities, currencies, futures and options. Traders from all experience levels can benefit from the wealth of information and tools available at TradingEducation.com which seeks to enhance their trading strategies and avoid costly mistakes. All information on TradingEducation.com, LLC websites is free to the public, with operational initiatives supported solely by advertisers.

About Market Technologies, LLC
Headquartered in Tampa Bay since its founding in 1979 by Louis B. Mendelsohn, with trading software customers in over 90 countries worldwide, Market Technologies is a fast growing, Inc. 500, company and recognized world leader in market forecasting. Market Technologies researches and develops proprietary trend forecasting and market timing technologies that utilize artificial intelligence applied to intermarket and hurricaneomic analysis, in order to forecast various commodity and financial markets throughout the world. These presently include, but are not limited to, stocks, stock indexes, ETFs, energies, interest rates, currencies, metals, grains, meats, softs and Forex, covering over 600 world markets. (www.tradertech.com)

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Media Contacts: TradingEducation.com, LLC
Darla D. Tuttle
813.973.3456
Darla@TradingEducation.com
Market Technologies, LLC
Marsha Jadoonath
813.973.0496
MarshaJ@Tradertech.com



 

* VantagePoint's accuracy statistics were computed on out-of-sample price data utilizing neural networks trained on both single market and intermarket data and relate to the Neural Index which indicates whether the average of tomorrow's typical price and the typical price of the day after tomorrow (both unknowns at this time) are expected to be higher or lower than the average of yesterday's typical price and the typical price of the day before yesterday.  The numerical value of the Neural Index, either a one (1) or a zero (0) thereby indicates whether or not the trend direction is expected to be higher or lower for each target market over the next two days. A Neural Network accuracy statistic of 80% does not mean that eight out of ten trades will be winning trades.  VantagePoint is not a trading system that gives the same specific buy and sell signals to all users. It is a technical forecasting tool that is comprised of proprietary forecasting indicators that apply neural networks to market data for the purpose of finding patterns and relationships between markets and then using this information to make futuristic forecasts. Using these indicators each trader determines his or her own entries, exits and stop placements which may vary from those of other traders due to differences among traders in trading style, objectives, risk propensity, account size and number of contracts involved, thereby producing different trading results from one trader to another. Futures and options trading involves risk, is not for every trader, and only risk capital should be used.  For more detailed information, please read our important disclaimer and software license agreement.

VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software, TraderTech, ProfitTaker, World Leader in Market Forecasting, and Market Technologies, LLC are trademarks of Market Technologies, LLC. Synergistic Market Analysis, Synergistic Analysis and Market Synergy are service marks of Market Technologies, LLC. Hurricaneomics is a registered trademark of Market Technologies, LLC

 

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