Wesley Chapel, Florida, August 18, 2008 -- The September U.S. Treasury Bond futures (USU8) at the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday morning poked to a fresh four-month high. The bulls have upside near-term technical momentum on their side as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend from the July low.
The next upside technical objective for the bond market bulls is to push and close September futures above solid chart resistance at the April high of 118 27/32. The bears would gain some fresh near-term downside technical momentum by pushing and closing September T-Bonds below solid chart support at 115 even.
From an important "intermarket" perspective, VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com) is presently providing bullish near-term signals for the September U.S. T-Bonds. VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool for which a trader can glean clues on potential near-term price trend changes or continuation of present trends. These near-term clues provided by VantagePoint can and do give a trader a key edge.
See on the VantagePoint daily bar chart for September T-Bond futures that the Predicted 4-day EMA is above the predicted Actual 10-day SMA Close line. Both lines are also trending higher. That is a bullish clue that there is more upside price potential in the near term. The Predicted Medium Term Crossover is the predicted 4 day exponential moving average of typical prices two days ahead (P4EMA+2) crosses above or below the actual 10 day simple moving average close (A10SMA).

Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com)
Note also that VantagePoint’s Predicted Moving Average Convergence Divergence (PMACD) indicator for the September T-Bond futures is also in a bullish mode as the black PMACD line is above the blue MACD Trigger line. Both lines are trending higher and have just moved above the horizontal "zero" line of the indicator, which is also a bullish indicator.
Predicted MACD (PMACD) predicts the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) one day ahead. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator calculated by subtracting a 20-day exponential moving average from a 10-day exponential moving average. MACD Trigger (Trigger) predicts the MACD trigger one day ahead. The MACD trigger is calculated as a 9-day exponential moving average of the MACD.
When the Predicted MACD line crosses below the Trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend. When the Predicted MACD line crosses above the Trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend. Another crossover indicator occurs when the Predicted MACD crosses above or below the zero line.
Predicted MACD can also be used as an overbought/oversold detector when it pulls away from the Trigger, suggesting the price of the market may be due for a correction that will bring the averages back together. Predicted MACD can also be used to spot underlying strength or weakness when its movement diverges from the movement of prices.
See, too on the daily bar chart for the September T-Bonds that VantagePoint's (www.TraderTech.com) Predicted Neural Index (PIndex) is presently reading 1.00, suggesting more upside price action in the near term.
When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “1.00,” indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “0.00,” indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days.
The PIndex is a proprietary indicator that predicts whether or not a three-day simple moving average of the typical price will be higher or lower two days in the future than it is today. The Predicted Neural Index compares two three-day moving averages to one another – today’s actual three-day moving average with a predicted three-day moving average.
The Predicted Neural Index is either correct or incorrect so its performance can be measured in terms of percent correct to produce the accuracy statistics cited for VantagePoint, which has a predictive accuracy rate of around 80% across a wide range of markets and time spans in ongoing research.
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