Wesley Chapel, Florida, July 21, 2008 -- The September Dow futures have recovered from the contract low of 10,810 scored on July 15 after trending lower for two months. Prices last Friday did post a bullish weekly high close.
"Although the bulls still have more technical work to do to regain solid upside near-term technical momentum, some important early indicators suggest the rebound in Dow futures will continue for at least the near term," said Jim Wyckoff analyst for www.TradingEducation.com.
VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com), a valuable trading tool that provides very early clues about potential near-term price trend changes or continuation of present trends to give a trader a key edge over the trading crowd, is presently displaying early bullish clues for the Dow stock index futures market.
VantagePoint Trading Software (www.TraderTech.com)
The VantagePoint daily bar chart for September Dow futures shows that the predicted medium-term exponential moving average (EMA) has just crossed above the actual medium-term simple moving average (SMA) close line. That's an early bullish clue for more upside price potential in the near term. A predicted medium-term crossover occurs when the predicted 4-day EMA of typical prices two days ahead crosses above or below the actual 10-day SMA of the close.
Note also that VantagePoint’s Predicted Moving Average Convergence Divergence (PMACD) indicator for September Dow futures is also in a bullish mode as the tan PMACD line has also just crossed above the blue MACD Trigger line. Both lines are starting to trend higher. Remember that "the trend is your friend" in trading markets, and trends can be plotted not only on price charts but also on technical indicators such as the PMACD.
Predicted MACD predicts the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) one day ahead. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator calculated by subtracting a 20-day EMA from a 10-day EMA. MACD Trigger predicts the MACD trigger one day ahead. The MACD trigger is calculated as a 9-day EMA of the MACD.
When the Predicted MACD line crosses below the Trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current uptrend to a new downtrend. When the Predicted MACD line crosses above the Trigger line, this predicts a possible reversal of the current downtrend to a new uptrend. Another crossover indicator occurs when the Predicted MACD crosses above or below the zero line.
Predicted MACD can also be used as an overbought/oversold detector when it pulls away from the Trigger, suggesting the price of the market may be due for a correction that will bring the averages back together. Predicted MACD can also be used to spot underlying strength or weakness when its movement diverges from the movement of prices.
The daily bar chart for the September Dow also shows that VantagePoint's (www.TraderTech.com) Predicted Neural Index (bright green line) is presently reading 1.00, further suggesting near-term upside potential.
When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “1.00,” indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “0.00,” indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days.
The Predicted Neural Index is either correct or incorrect so its performance can be measured in terms of percent correct to produce the accuracy statistics cited for VantagePoint, which has a predictive accuracy rate of around 80% across a wide range of markets and time spans in ongoing research.
Finally, it would not be surprising to see September Dow futures rally into the August timeframe and then start to trade in a choppy and sideways fashion into the mid-September timeframe, as the "dog days" of summer make for lackluster trading.
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Headquartered in Tampa Bay since its founding in 1979 by Louis B.
Mendelsohn, with trading software customers in over 90 countries worldwide,
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