Wesley Chapel, Florida, October 27, 2008 --January soybean futures closed lower last Friday, finishing the week nearer the session low and scoring a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Prices are still in a 3.5-month downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $8.38 1/2. A close below that chart point would produce more chart damage to suggest a fresh leg down in prices in the near term.
The next upside price objective for the bean bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $9.55 1/2 a bushel, which would begin to provide the bean market bulls with some fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis trading indicators (www.TraderTech.com) corroborate the path of least resistance for January soybeans remains to the downside. VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool that employs "intermarket" analysis to forecast near-term price trends. Intermarket analysis is the study of how markets are inter-related and impact each other's daily price moves. Veteran traders realize the significance of intermarket analysis. In fact, the recent strong influence of the key "outside markets" for grains – crude oil and the value of the U.S. dollar – is a prime example of the importance of intermarket analysis.
On the VantagePoint daily bar chart for January soybean futures the Predicted Moving Average Convergence Divergence (PMACD) is in a bearish posture as the thick black PMACD line has just crossed below the thin blue "trigger" line of the indicator.
PMACD is another way of using moving averages to predict market changes. PMACD charts the difference between two predicted exponential moving averages and uses another exponential moving average of the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) as a trigger for trading signals. MACD is a trend-following momentum indicator calculated by subtracting a 20-day exponential moving average from a 10-day exponential moving average. The MACD trigger is calculated as a 9-day exponential moving average of the MACD. VantagePoint's PMACD predicts the MACD one day ahead.
The daily chart for January soybeans also shows that VantagePoint's Predicted Neural Index is presently reading 0.00, reinforcing the outlook for downside price pressure in the near term.
When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 1.00, indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is 0.00, indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days.
The Predicted Neural Index, a proprietary VantagePoint indicator, is either correct or incorrect so its performance can be measured in terms of percent correct to produce the accuracy statistics cited for VantagePoint, which has a predictive accuracy rate of around 80% across a wide range of markets and time spans in ongoing research.
About Market Technologies, LLC
Headquartered in Tampa Bay since its founding in 1979 by Louis B.
Mendelsohn, with trading software customers in over 90 countries worldwide,
Market Technologies is a fast growing, Inc. 500, company and recognized
world leader in market forecasting. Market Technologies researches and
develops proprietary trend forecasting and market timing technologies that
utilize artificial intelligence applied to intermarket and hurricaneomic
analysis, in order to forecast various commodity and financial markets
throughout the world. These presently include, but are not limited to,
stocks, stock indexes, ETFs, energies, interest rates, currencies, metals,
grains, meats, softs and Forex, covering over 600 world markets. (www.tradertech.com)
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