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VantagePoint Analysis: More Upside Likely in U.S. Dollar Index Futures

 

Wesley Chapel, Florida, October 13, 2008 --The December U.S. Dollar Index futures (CL X8) on the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) in New York last week hit a fresh contract high of 83.50, amid flight-to-quality buying of the greenback amid the world financial market crisis. While the U.S. economy has also been hit hard by the crisis, the U.S. dollar has been supported due to trader beliefs that the U.S. currency is still the most sound currency in the world during times of extreme uncertainty.

The December U.S. dollar index has been trending higher since July and the bulls are in technical command. The next upside price objective for the U.S. Dollar Index bulls is producing a close above the contract high of 83.50, basis December futures.

From an important intermarket perspective provided by VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis software (www.TraderTech.com), technical odds also further favor more upside price pressure in the December U.S. Dollar Index in the coming few sessions. VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool for which a trader can glean clues on potential near-term price trend changes or continuation of present trends. These near-term clues provided by VantagePoint can and do give a trader a key edge.

  

See on the VantagePoint daily bar chart for the December U.S. Dollar Index futures that VantagePoint's Predicted Neural Index (PIndex) is presently reading 1.00, suggesting more upside price pressure in the near term.

When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “1.00,” indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is less than today’s actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “0.00,” indicating the market is expected to move lower over the next two days.

The PIndex is a proprietary indicator that predicts whether or not a three-day simple moving average of the typical price will be higher or lower two days in the future than it is today. The Predicted Neural Index compares two three-day moving averages to one another – today’s actual three-day moving average with a predicted three-day moving average.

The Predicted Neural Index is either correct or incorrect so its performance can be measured in terms of percent correct to produce the accuracy statistics cited for VantagePoint, which has a predictive accuracy rate of around 80% across a wide range of markets and time spans in ongoing research.

See, too, on the VantagePoint (www.TraderTech.com) daily bar chart for November soybeans that the Predicted Medium Term Crossover study shows the predicted 4 day exponential moving average is presently above the actual 10 day simple moving average close, which is also a bullish signal.

The Predicted Medium Term Crossover is the predicted 4 day exponential moving average of typical prices two days ahead (P4EMA+2) crosses above or below the actual 10 day simple moving average close (A10SMA).

Importantly, the U.S. Dollar index is a key barometer of the overall health of the U.S. currency. The U.S. dollar has been a key "outside market" for which many other markets have tracked closely in recent months. This is a clear example of the "Intermarket" analysis approach used by VantagePoint. Indeed, all markets are inter-twined and impact each other to varying degrees.

About Market Technologies, LLC
Headquartered in Tampa Bay since its founding in 1979 by Louis B. Mendelsohn, with trading software customers in over 90 countries worldwide, Market Technologies is a fast growing, Inc. 500, company and recognized world leader in market forecasting. Market Technologies researches and develops proprietary trend forecasting and market timing technologies that utilize artificial intelligence applied to intermarket and hurricaneomic analysis, in order to forecast various commodity and financial markets throughout the world. These presently include, but are not limited to, stocks, stock indexes, ETFs, energies, interest rates, currencies, metals, grains, meats, softs and Forex, covering over 600 world markets. (www.tradertech.com)

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Media Contacts: Market Technologies, LLC
Marsha Jadoonath
813.973.0496
MarshaJ@Tradertech.com



 

* VantagePoint's accuracy statistics were computed on out-of-sample price data utilizing neural networks trained on both single market and intermarket data and relate to the Neural Index which indicates whether the average of tomorrow's typical price and the typical price of the day after tomorrow (both unknowns at this time) are expected to be higher or lower than the average of yesterday's typical price and the typical price of the day before yesterday.  The numerical value of the Neural Index, either a one (1) or a zero (0) thereby indicates whether or not the trend direction is expected to be higher or lower for each target market over the next two days. A Neural Network accuracy statistic of 80% does not mean that eight out of ten trades will be winning trades.  VantagePoint is not a trading system that gives the same specific buy and sell signals to all users. It is a technical forecasting tool that is comprised of proprietary forecasting indicators that apply neural networks to market data for the purpose of finding patterns and relationships between markets and then using this information to make futuristic forecasts. Using these indicators each trader determines his or her own entries, exits and stop placements which may vary from those of other traders due to differences among traders in trading style, objectives, risk propensity, account size and number of contracts involved, thereby producing different trading results from one trader to another. Futures and options trading involves risk, is not for every trader, and only risk capital should be used.  For more detailed information, please read our important disclaimer and software license agreement.

VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software, TraderTech, ProfitTaker, World Leader in Market Forecasting, and Market Technologies, LLC are trademarks of Market Technologies, LLC. Synergistic Market Analysis, Synergistic Analysis and Market Synergy are service marks of Market Technologies, LLC. Hurricaneomics is a registered trademark of Market Technologies, LLC

 

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