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VantagePoint Analysis: U.S. Dollar Index Due for More Corrective Downside Pressure

 

Wesley Chapel, Florida, February 23, 2009  --The March U.S. dollar index futures on Monday dropped down to challenge an uptrend line drawn from the December and February lows on the daily bar chart, but then recovered. Mild profit-taking pressure has been seen in the dollar index after recent solid gains.

The U.S. dollar index bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage as the nine-week-old uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. A push and close below solid technical support at the 85.00 level would produce some near-term technical damage and would provide the bears with some fresh downside near-term technical momentum.

For the U.S. dollar index bulls to gains fresh upside near-term technical momentum they will have to push and close prices above strong overhead chart resistance at last week's high of 88.57, basis March futures.

The key VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis trading tool (www.TraderTech.com) does suggest some more downside corrective price pressure is on the horizon for the March U.S. dollar index in the near term. VantagePoint is a valuable trading tool that employs "Intermarket" analysis to forecast near-term price trends. The U.S. dollar has been one key "outside market" for which many other markets have focused upon for many months. That's an example of the Intermarket phenomenon that occurs in all markets.

  
Source: VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software (www.TraderTech.com)

See on the VantagePoint daily bar chart for the March dollar index that the Predicted Medium Term Crossover study shows the predicted 4-day exponential moving average has "rolled over" and appears poised to produce a bearish line crossover signal by moving below the predicted 10-day simple moving average.

Predicted Medium Term Crossover is the predicted 4 day exponential moving average of typical prices two days ahead (P4EMA+2) crosses above or below the actual 10 day simple moving average close (A10SMA).

Also note on the daily chart for the March U.S. dollar index that VantagePoint's Predicted Stochastic indicator is in a bearish posture. The indicator had been above 80.00, which is bearish and has also turned down and produced a bearish line crossover signal, whereby the predicted stochastic line crossed below the "trigger" line of the indicator.

The Predicted Stochastic indicator is based on the position of the close relative to the high or low of the day. During periods of price decreases, the daily closes tend to accumulate near the daily lows. During periods of price increases, the daily closes tend to accumulate near the daily highs. The Predicted Stochastic indicator is an oscillator designed to predict overbought and oversold conditions one day in advance.

Predicted Stochastic (PStoch) predicts a 14-day stochastic oscillator (%K) one day ahead, comparing the market’s current close to its price range over a period of time. Stochastic Trigger (Trigger) predicts a 3-day moving average (%D) of the stochastic oscillator (%K) one day ahead. The

Predicted Stochastic charts the two lines, Predicted Stochastic (%K) and Stochastic Trigger (%D) plotted on a scale ranging from 0 to 100. Readings above 80 predict an overbought condition; readings below 20 predict an oversold condition (thresholds indicated by dashed lines on chart). The

Predicted Stochastic (%K) line is faster and more sensitive than the Stochastic Trigger (%D) line. When the Predicted Stochastic (%K) crosses over the Stochastic Trigger (%D) line in overbought (>80) or oversold (<20) territory, this could be an indication that the market is about to reverse course.

About Market Technologies, LLC
Headquartered in Tampa Bay since its founding in 1979 by Louis B. Mendelsohn, with trading software customers in over 90 countries worldwide, Market Technologies is a fast growing, Inc. 500, company and recognized world leader in market forecasting. Market Technologies researches and develops proprietary trend forecasting and market timing technologies that utilize artificial intelligence applied to intermarket and hurricaneomic analysis, in order to forecast various commodity and financial markets throughout the world. These presently include, but are not limited to, stocks, stock indexes, ETFs, energies, interest rates, currencies, metals, grains, meats, softs and Forex, covering over 600 world markets. (www.TraderTech.com)

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Media Contacts: Market Technologies, LLC
Marsha Jadoonath
813.973.0496
MarshaJ@Tradertech.com



 

* VantagePoint's accuracy statistics were computed on out-of-sample price data utilizing neural networks trained on both single market and intermarket data and relate to the Neural Index which indicates whether the average of tomorrow's typical price and the typical price of the day after tomorrow (both unknowns at this time) are expected to be higher or lower than the average of yesterday's typical price and the typical price of the day before yesterday.  The numerical value of the Neural Index, either a one (1) or a zero (0) thereby indicates whether or not the trend direction is expected to be higher or lower for each target market over the next two days. A Neural Network accuracy statistic of 80% does not mean that eight out of ten trades will be winning trades.  VantagePoint is not a trading system that gives the same specific buy and sell signals to all users. It is a technical forecasting tool that is comprised of proprietary forecasting indicators that apply neural networks to market data for the purpose of finding patterns and relationships between markets and then using this information to make futuristic forecasts. Using these indicators each trader determines his or her own entries, exits and stop placements which may vary from those of other traders due to differences among traders in trading style, objectives, risk propensity, account size and number of contracts involved, thereby producing different trading results from one trader to another. Futures and options trading involves risk, is not for every trader, and only risk capital should be used.  For more detailed information, please read our important disclaimer and software license agreement.

VantagePoint Intermarket Analysis Software, TraderTech, ProfitTaker, World Leader in Market Forecasting, and Market Technologies, LLC are trademarks of Market Technologies, LLC. Synergistic Market Analysis, Synergistic Analysis and Market Synergy are service marks of Market Technologies, LLC. Hurricaneomics is a registered trademark of Market Technologies, LLC

 

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