 The nearly 80% accuracy statistic is tied specifically to the Predicted Neural Index (PNI). Let’s say the Neural Index is giving you a forecast and its telling you that over the next two days the average of the typical price is going to be higher then the average of the typical price over the past two days. That tells you that the market trend is expected to go up. Whether this prediction was right or wrong can be measured against what the market actually did. After the neural networks are trained on historical data, they are tested against market data that was not included in their training, or in other words they are tested against data they have never “seen” before. This is known as “out of sample data” and to properly verify accuracy, only out of sample data should be used when testing accuracy. The accuracy percentages are the percent of the time the predictions were correct.
The reason we say it is “nearly” 80% accurate is because we forecast for over 600 markets. That includes commodities, stocks, ETFs, currencies and so on, and not every single market has exactly 80% accuracy. We don’t have any that are less then 70% and some of them are well above 80%. So we say it’s “nearly” 80% because that is where the average of all the markets falls in. The specific accuracy statistics for each market are available on our disclaimer page, here.
- Has your nearly 80% accuracy claim ever been verified by an independent party?
Yes, many times. Over the years, several financial industry publications have reviewed VantagePoint and during that process verified the accuracy of the Predicted Neural Index as around 80%. You can read those reviews here.
Most recently, in August 2009, the accuracy of VantagePoint 8.0 was examined by Dr. Gerald H. Meyer, PhD. He also verified the accuracy of VantagePoint as nearly 80% accurate. You can see the details of the methodology of his examination and the detailed results here.
We do not send out forecasts for future days to non-customers, as that would not be fair to the thousands of traders who have paid to have access to VantagePoint’s market predictions and leading indicators. Rather than have you try to evaluate VantagePoint by looking at 2 or 3 days worth of predictions to judge a product that has been available for close to 20 years, we will show you what VantagePoint has predicted for months or years. You will see the very same output and forecasts that our customers saw, including when VantagePoint was right, and when it was wrong. Remember, VantagePoint is a sophisticated technical analysis tool, but it is not a 100% perfect crystal ball. Serious traders understand and appreciate the difference.
When people write things like “On April 28th VantagePoint predicted the market would go up, and it went down, and that proves it doesn’t work” it is clear that that they are expecting 100% accuracy, and they will clearly be disappointed with any technical analysis software available. A handful of days are clearly not sufficient for you to evaluate VantagePoint, and we would not expect you to do so. Rather, take a look at our output over a longer time period, and you will clearly see the benefits that VantagePoint provides to our customers.
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