Where do you get the up to 86% accuracy from?

The up to 86% accuracy statistic is tied specifically to the Predicted Neural Index (PNI).  Let’s say the Neural Index is giving you a forecast and its telling you that over the next two days the average of the typical price is going to be higher then the average of the typical price over the past two days.  That tells you that the market trend is expected to go up.  Whether this prediction was right or wrong can be measured against what the market actually did.  After the neural networks are trained on historical data, they are tested against market data that was not included in their training, or in other words they are tested against data they have never “seen” before.  This is known as “out of sample data” and to properly verify accuracy, only out of sample data should be used when testing accuracy.  The accuracy percentages are the percent of the time the predictions were correct.

So what do you mean by "nearly" 80% accurate and "up to" 86% accurate?

The reason we say it is “nearly” 80% accurate is because we forecast for over 600 markets.  That includes commodities, stocks, ETFs, currencies and so on, and not every single market has exactly 80% accuracy.  We don’t have any that are less then 70% and some of them are well above 80%, up to the highest at 86% accuracy.  So we say it’s “nearly” 80% because that is where the average of all the markets falls in.  The specific accuracy statistics for each market are available on our disclaimer page, here.

Has your nearly accuracy claim ever been verified by an independent party?

Yes, many times.  Over the years, several financial industry publications have reviewed VantagePoint and during that process verified the accuracy of the Predicted Neural Index as around 80%.  You can read those reviews here. 

With all of the get-rich-quick schemes popping up in response to the current global financial crisis, VantagePoint Trading Software continues to be the world leader in market forecasting, as shown in a recent analysis by several independent third party sources.   The accuracy of VantagePoint’s Predictive Neural Index has been verified by several PhDs who also trade in the markets.  Here are the two most recent studies that have been conducted.

Dr. Gerald H. Meyer, currently a full professor and Director of Computer Science at LaGuardia Community College, the City University of New York, who served as chair of the Computer Information Systems Department for more than twenty years.   To hear Dr. Gerald H. Meyer's own words, please go here >>

Twelve markets were randomly selected from the 600+ offered by VantagePoint. Detailed methodology was then used to analyze data for a two-year period to certify the accuracy rate of the predicted neural index, which compares an actual three-day moving average with a predicted three-day moving average to forecast whether a three-day simple moving average of the typical price (average of the high, low and close) will be higher or lower in two days than it is today. Meyer found that the range of accuracy for all twelve markets selected was from a low 73.9% to a high of 83.2%, with the mean of all twelve markets at 78%.   To read the full certification, please go here >>

Dr. Ted W. Warnock has nearly 30 years experience in the planning, analysis, research, development, prototyping and testing of advanced technology systems.  He has earned bachelor’s and Ph.D. degrees in aerospace engineering from Auburn University, a master’s degree in aeronautical and astronautical engineering from Stanford University; and a master’s degree in systems management from the University of Southern California.  He pioneered the application of neural networks to the real world problem of predicting the orbital lifetimes of tethered satellites.

Daily price data provided by the Commodities Research Bureau (CRB) spanning the time period of interest for this assessment was ingested into VantagePoint.  Selected columns of VantagePoint’s History Report for each market were exported to Microsoft Excel for analysis.  The data exported were the Date, the PNI, and the High, Low, and Closing Prices for each of the 26 markets each day.  Each of these data elements were imported into separate columns in Excel spreadsheets (one spreadsheet per market).

The results of these assessments indicate the accuracy and consistency of VantagePoint’s Predicted Neural Index.  With only 1 exception, the overall (combined) PNI accuracy for all markets considered was demonstrated to be in excess of 75%.  In all but 5 of the 26 markets considered, PNI accuracy was found to be 77% or better.  To read the full certification, please go here >>

VantagePoint Trading Software has been predicting market trends with up to 86% accuracy was first introduced in 1991. VantagePoint’s high-probability forecasts of market trend direction helps traders anticipate changes in price direction, rather than merely identifying trends after the fact, and gives them confidence to take trading signals.